On April 25, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) decided to maintain the key rate unchanged at 14% per annum.
The regulator noted a gradual decrease in the influence of fundamental monetary factors on inflationary processes, though the increased gas and electricity tariffs “may have a one-time impact on overall inflation” from May 1.
Overall inflation continued to decline since the beginning of the year, reaching 8% annually in March, with a significant decline in food inflation.
External food market prices have contributed to reducing imported inflation, as reported by the CBU analysts.
Core inflation slowed significantly, registering 7.6% annually in March, consistently below the general inflation rate since the beginning of the year.
Considering rising energy prices and the introduction of VAT on select goods and services in April, CBU adjusted its primary 2024 expectations and raised its general inflation forecast from 8−9% to 9−11%, with core inflation expected to be around 7−8% by the end of the year.
Preliminary data demonstrates a first-quarter economic growth surge to 6.2%. High growth rates were noticed in services, retail trade and construction, as well as increased investment activity in manufacturing and mining sectors. Projected GDP growth for the year stands at 5.2−5.7% , while the previous forecast amounted to 5.5−6%.
